The 2026 First Home Supply Strategy

A tactical guide on how brokers can align with the $10 billion federal program.

The Australian property landscape is shifting. With the federal government's $10 billion investment in housing supply slated for construction commencement in the 2026–27 financial year, a new pipeline of stock is emerging. This isn't just about more homes; it's about reserved supply specifically for first-home buyers (FHBs).

For brokers, this represents a critical strategic pivot. The "grant-chasing" model is evolving into a "supply-alignment" model.

Executive Summary

  • Timing: Construction starts FY 2026–27; inventory hits market 12-18 months later.
  • Opportunity: ~40,000+ homes reserved for eligible buyers (avoiding investor competition).
  • Action: Brokers must build "Future FHB" pipelines now, focusing on eligibility over immediate borrowing power.

The Volume Impact: Why It Matters

Unlike cash grants which spike demand immediately (and often inflate prices), supply-side programs create a sustained release of inventory. The chart below projects the "Second Wave" of FHB settlements driven by this program.

Broker Strategy: The "Strategy Impact" (Blue) represents clients who might fail standard serviceability today but will qualify for these reserved homes due to shared equity components often attached to government supply projects.

Strategic Timeline: What To Do & When

The gap between announcement and occupancy is your "Education Window." Toggle between the phases below to see your specific broker tasks.

The Nurture Window

Construction hasn't started. Your goal is database segmentation.

  • Audit CRM: Tag renters with stable income but low deposits as #2026-Target.
  • Education: Send an eDM explaining "Reserved Supply" vs "Open Market" buying.
  • Builder Relations: Identify developers tendering for federal projects in your patch.

Client Conversations: The "Script"

Your clients are reading headlines about "Housing Crises." Here is how you flip the script to "Housing Opportunity."

For The "Forever Renter"

"I know the market feels impossible right now. But there is a specific supply of 40,000 homes coming online in 2026 that investors cannot buy. Let's set up a savings plan today so you are deposit-ready the moment that exclusive window opens."

For The "Priced Out" Buyer

"You're priced out of existing auctions, but this new federal program isn't an auction. It's a ballot/reservation system for eligible buyers. If we get your paperwork sorted now, we move you to the front of that queue."

Broker Readiness Checklist

Final Thought

The brokers who treat this $10 billion program as "just another announcement" will miss the wave. The brokers who treat it as a business unit—nurturing leads today for settlements in 2027—will secure their future revenue.

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